特斯拉进进中国会如何？------中国可以推翻伊隆•马斯克的可再生能源之梦
飞速增加的特斯拉电动汽车的销量还有太阳城公司的太阳能及能源存储体系的增加了，这是有史以来在可再生能源上所下的最年夜的赌注之一，是以这使他在全国范畴内乱变得家喻户晓。中国可以推翻伊隆·马斯克的可再生能源之梦China Could Upend Elon Musk's RenewableEnergy Dreams
Elon Musk has as much as $10 billion, not to mention his own personalfortune, riding on the growth of TeslaMotors (NASDAQ: TSLA ) EV salesandSolarCity's (NASDAQ: SCTY ) solar and energy storage systemgrowth. It's one of the biggest bets ever made on renewable energy and it'smade him a household name across the country.
伊隆 马斯克有着上百亿美金资产，更不消说其小我资产，飞速增加的特斯拉电动汽车的销量还有太阳城公司的太阳能及能源存储体系的增加了，这是有史以来在可再生能源上所下的最年夜的赌注之一，是以这使他在全国范畴内乱变得家喻户晓。
To dominate EVs, solar energy, and energy storage Musk is trying to build outbattery capacity before competitors can gain traction, and thus far he'***ecuted well on that strategy. There's really only one place with theresources and wherewithal to derail Musk's hopes to dominate both EVs andenergy storage -- China. The problem is that they may be doing just that.
马斯克试图在竞争敌手发力之前增添电池容量，以此把持电动汽车、太阳能和能源储存范畴，迄今为止，他的┞封一计谋履行杰出。只有一个真正拥有资本和资金处所，可以损坏马斯克的盼望把持电动汽车和储能的欲望——中国，此刻的题目是，他们可能会这么做的。
China betting big on electric vehicles
中国在电动汽车范畴下了很年夜的赌注
The latest rumor out of China is that the country will levy a hefty gas tax andpour the revenue generated into expanding electric vehicle usage in thecountry. This could add billions to an industry that's already being supportedby a government that's purchasing EVs for its own use in mass. In many ways,the concept makes sense for China's future and follows a path the country hastaken in the past.
比来从中国传出的讹传，即这个国度将征收高额汽油税并把发生的收进投进在电动汽车上。当局已经年夜范围应用并支撑电动汽车，这使得该行业增添了数十亿美元的投进。在很多方面，按照国度指定的途径的┞封个概念对中国的将来很有意义。
Chinese cities are congested with smog from everything from coal electricplants to the amount of gas burned by the growing middle class. So, there's anenvironmental driver for EVs.
中国城市烟雾围绕，不竭强大中产阶层的的花费使得从煤炭发电厂中燃烧出了大批气鼓鼓体。所以，这里有一个对电动汽车的情况驱动力。
But China also likes to be an early mover in new industries, particularly whenlarge scale manufacturing is involved. EVs and batteries could be a huge growthmarket for China over the next few decades, and it's only logical that theywould make a push into being a major supplier for the industry. China has usedstate-run banks to build out capacity in industries it wants to dominate, likeelectronics and solar, and I think batteries could be next, but I'll cover thatbelow.
但中国也爱好在新财产，特殊是在年夜范围出产上做先行者。电动汽车和电池市场在将来几十年可能会有一个宏大的增加，独一合乎逻辑的是，他们会尽最年夜的尽力成为这个行业的重要供给商。中国国有银行被用来支撑构建它想占主导的行业的才能，如电子和太阳能，我以为电池可能是下一个，如下我将先容。
The biggest driver of China's push into EVs could be the country's growingreliance on foreign oil. You can see below that the gap between China's oilproduction and consumption is growing each year and it now has to deal withcountries like Iraq, Iran, and Syria just to meet its energyneeds.
中国推动电动汽车的最年夜驱动力可能是由于该国对外国石油的依靠。下面你可以看到，中国年年增加的石油出产和花费之间的差距，其此刻不得不处置这些国度的事物，如伊拉克、伊朗和叙利亚只是为了知足其能源需求。
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If EVs can reduce China's reliance on foreign oil it would be logical to pushtheir adoption. The economic benefits would be a side effect of the improvedenergy security, something China's leaders have to be considering at themoment.
假如电动汽车可以削减中国对外国石油的依靠，那么推进该范畴的就是合适逻辑的了。经济效益将是进步能源平安的一个副感化，这是中国引导人必需斟酌的题目。
Why this is a problem for Elon Musk
为什么这对马斯克会是个麻烦
You may think that China's expansion into EVs would be good for Tesla and onsome levels that would be right. It would open up a new market for the Model S,Model X, and future Model 3, something that could be a positive forTesla.
你可能以为中国在电动汽车上的扩大将有利于特斯拉，这在某种水平上是准确的。它将为Model S， Model X,，还有将来的 Model 3（译者注：特斯拉车型）打开一个新的市场，有一些对特斯拉是有积极意义的。
But if China decides to pour billions of dollars into electric vehicles andbattery manufacturing it could be devastating for Tesla. Musk is spending $5billion to build battery capacity at the Gigafactory in Nevada, and he now hasto find end market demand for not only cars but batteries as well.
但假如中国决议将数十亿美元投进电动汽车和电池制作，那么这对特斯拉可能是扑灭性的。马斯克在内乱华达州破费了50亿美元建造的出产电池的超等工场，并且他此刻必需找到终端市场需求，而不克不及仅仅是汽车电池。
Part of the logic in building the Gigafactory was to lower costs and make EVsand energy storage more competitive in the market. But if China floods themarket with low-cost product it could reduce Tesla's potential margin frombatteries and create a competitor both in EVs and energy storage. It'ssomething the country has done before in renewable energy.
有一部门人的逻辑是扶植超等工场可以下降本钱并使电动汽车和能源储存在市场中变得更具竞争力。但假如中国以低本钱的产物充满市场，就可以下降特斯拉在电池财产上的潜伏利润，并形成一个在电动汽车和储能上竞争敌手。这是该国在可再生能源上已经做过的事。
China has played this game before
中国以前就玩过这招
This isn't some far fetched idea I'm *** up to scare Tesla or SolarCityinvestors, it's something we've seen play out before.
这不是我用一些不靠谱的设法来恐吓特斯拉或超等工场的投资者，我们以前就看过这出。
In the late 90s and 2000s when China decided it wanted to be a computingpowerhouse the country's state-run banks poured billions of dollars intobuilding out manufacturing capacity to compete with U.S. companies. Eventually,PC manufacturers in the U.S. either went bankrupt, sold to Chinese competitors,or decided to outsource electronics manufacturing to China. When China wantssomething -- it gets it.
在90年月末和2000年摆布，傍边国决议想成为盘算强国的时辰，中国国有银行投进了数十亿美元以扶植其出产才能并与美国公司竞争。终极，小我电制作商们就在美国破产了，或被卖给了中国的竞争敌手，或决议把电子制作业外包给中国。傍边国想要某个工具——它就会获得它。
More recently, the solar industry was upended by a massive expansion in Chinesecapacity, funded by Chinese state-run banks. Billions poured into the market,flooding the solar industry with product and pushing out suppliers that didn'thave the cost structure or financial backing to keep up. Most U.S. and Europeansolar manufacturers went bankrupt leaving Chinese suppliers like YingliGreen Energy and Trina Solar who are supported by Chinese banksto this day.
比来，太阳能财产被中国的年夜范围扩大才能推翻了，中国国有银行将数十亿美元如洪水般的倾倒进市场，将那些没有本钱构造或资金支撑的太阳能财产与产物供给商挤出市场。年夜大都美国和欧洲的太阳能制作商是以破产，使得中国供给商如英利绿色能源和天合光能等由中国的银行所支撑的公司存在至今。
If China decides to put billions into building out EV capacity -- particularlybatteries -- it would put downward pressure on costs that currently don'texist. If China does make the investment in EVs that's been rumored, we couldsee a similar dynamic to what happened in the solar industry in the late 2000sand early 2010s. Investors had put huge multiples on solar companies, and whenChina flooded the market the stocks collapsed as U.S. companies struggled tosurvive under the pressure.
假如中国决议投进数十亿美元扶植其电动汽车产能，尤其是电池财产，这将压低本钱，而这种情形今朝尚不存在。假如中国在电动汽车的投资是谎言，我们可以看到在太阳能财产在2000年月末和2010年月初相似的动态成长。投资者把巨量的资金投进到太阳能公司中，傍边国涌进市场时，股市瓦解了，美国公司在压力下挣扎求生。
Here's a small snapshot of happened to solar investors from 2008-2012 -- andthese are two companies that survived. Many more went bankrupt because ofChinese oversupply.
这里有一个从2008年到2012年产生在太阳能投资者身上的小图，仅有两个公司幸存下来，更多的破产了，由于中国的产能多余。
假如他可以或许拉动年夜投资。就能推翻。 中国应当鼎力成长核电站，给电动汽车供给更多电。增进电动汽车的可连续快速成长，解决城市的雾霾情况题目。 汽油税已经比拟高了，电动车本钱仍是高，没有到周全普及的水平。
假如电动车普及了，那充电本钱又会上往，由于电力部分会算计大师的百公里应用本钱，不会和油拉开太年夜差距。
高低班，弄个电动车开开，仍是很合算的。 特斯拉进进中国会如何？------ 天朝会维护国内乱企业的，用各类槛和税
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